As the Nigeria Premier Football League (NPFL) nears its climax, the battle to avoid relegation has become more intense, with several teams fighting to secure their top-flight status. This statistical breakdown, compiled by BinarySports, highlights the survival probabilities of teams struggling at the bottom of the table.
Bottom 5 Clubs & Their Survival Probabilities
| Club | Position | Points | Max Points Possible | Goal Difference (GD) | Survival Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lobi Stars FC | 20th | 25 | 37 | -22 | <1% (Virtually relegated) |
| Sunshine Stars FC | 19th | 38 | 50 | -14 | 35% (At serious risk) |
| Akwa United FC | 18th | 38 | 50 | -5 | 45% (Tiebreaker advantage) |
| Heartland FC | 17th | 41 | 53 | -2 | 60% (Controls fate) |
| El-Kanemi Warriors FC | 16th | 43 | 55 | -6 | 78% (A win could guarantee safety) |
Statistical Observations
- Lobi Stars FC are virtually doomed due to their poor goal difference and lack of wins.
- Sunshine Stars FC must exceed expectations to survive.
- Akwa United FC have a competitive goal difference but need crucial wins.
- Heartland FC has minimal room for error but controls their fate.
- El-Kanemi Warriors FC could survive with just one win if their rivals struggle.
Teams That Are Almost Safe
| Club | Position | Points | Survival Chance | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plateau United FC | 11th | 45 | 93% | Safe unless a complete collapse occurs |
| Bayelsa United FC | 10th | 46 | 95% | Practically safe |
Relegation Race Realistically Between:
- Sunshine Stars (19th)
- Akwa United (18th)
- Heartland FC (17th)
- Possibly El-Kanemi or Nasarawa, if their form takes a downturn.
By Idris Okeke
